Updated every week · 11 indicators tracked

Our top-down lens on markets

Before picking any stock, we ask: is the environment right to be invested? 11 macro indicators across 5 categories answer that question — producing a single Risk-On / Risk-Off verdict every week.

See this week's verdictSee all 11 indicators

Our framework

Top-down investing, step by step

We start at the 30,000-foot view and narrow down — never the other way around.

01
Macro Regime
Is the global & Indian macro environment conducive to equity investment? Risk-On, Neutral, or Risk-Off?
02
Sector Rotation
Which sectors benefit from the current regime? (e.g. Rate cuts → Financials & Real Estate, Capex boom → Capital Goods)
03
Stock Selection
Within winning sectors, screen for QGLP quality, growth trajectory, longevity of moat, and attractive entry price.
Final Output
Curated stock picks with entry ranges, trailing stop losses, and QGLP conviction scores

What we track

The 11 indicators we analyse

Each indicator is scored independently as Risk-On, Neutral, or Risk-Off. The composite score is their weighted average — giving a 0–100 read on the macro environment.

Market Trend

1 indicator
Market Trend

Nifty 50 Short-Term Trend

Near-term price momentum using Hull Moving Average (HMA). Slope direction determines bull vs bear regime.

Current signal locked

Commodities

2 indicators
Commodities

Crude Oil (Brent)

Rising crude = higher inflation & current account pressure for India. We watch the trend, not the absolute level.

Current signal locked
Commodities

Gold Price

Gold rising fast = risk-off signal. Moderate gold = inflationary hedge in a risk-on environment.

Current signal locked

Economic Activity

3 indicators
Economic Activity

Electricity Consumption

India's real-time economic pulse. Month-on-month generation data from CEA — one of the most reliable leading indicators.

Current signal locked
Economic Activity

Freight & Logistics

Container freight rates and road freight indices. Rising freight = rising demand = risk-on.

Current signal locked
Economic Activity

Air Passenger Traffic

Monthly domestic + international passenger volumes proxy consumer confidence and mobility.

Current signal locked

Global Rates & FX

4 indicators
Global Rates & FX

Global Central Bank Rates

Rate direction from Fed, ECB, RBI, BOJ, BOE. Cuts = liquidity expansion = risk-on for equities globally.

Current signal locked
Global Rates & FX

Dollar Index (DXY)

Strong DXY = capital flows out of emerging markets. Weak DXY = FII inflows into India.

Current signal locked
Global Rates & FX

USD/INR Exchange Rate

Rupee depreciation signals FII selling pressure. Stable or strengthening rupee is constructive.

Current signal locked
Global Rates & FX

US 10yr–2yr Yield Spread

The classic recession predictor. Negative spread (inversion) historically precedes US recessions by 12–18 months.

Current signal locked

Real Estate

1 indicator
Real Estate

Real Estate Cycle

Residential launches, registrations, and commercial absorption data. Early-cycle recovery = risk-on for financials & cement.

Current signal locked

How it works

How the verdict is calculated

Three possible verdicts — determined by how many of the 11 indicators are pointing positive.

Risk On
When
7 or more of 11 indicators positive
What to do
Fully invested. Run positions with trailing stop losses. Add new picks from our watchlist.
Neutral
When
4 to 6 of 11 indicators mixed
What to do
Selective exposure. Hold quality, reduce speculation, watch for regime shift in either direction.
Risk Off
When
Fewer than 4 positive indicators
What to do
Defensive stance. Raise cash, tighten stop losses, avoid new longs until regime improves.
Composite Macro Score

Weighted average of all 11 indicator signals

0 = Risk-Off · 100 = Risk-On
0 — Risk Off3350 — Neutral67100 — Risk On

This week's exact score and full indicator breakdown is available to registered members.

This week's live dashboard

Real indicator signals · composite score · expert commentary

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